Science A-level entries for 2009: "good news" or spin?

Once again, the director of the Joint Council for Qualifications, Jim Sinclair, has hailed the annual A-level entry statistics as evidence for greater uptake of sciences, saying: "It is particularly good to report improved uptake and outcomes for mathematics and science."

And Mike Cresswell, director of the AQA, also comments that: "The three of the sciences are coming through strongly. It's a good news story for the sciences."

But is it really a "good news story" for the sciences? Let's take a closer look at the facts and figures from the JCQ report (available here).

First of all, there were 777,170 total A-level entries across all subjects in England this year, compared with 760,881 in 2008.

The increase in entries could be because a greater proportion of young people are staying in education for A-level studies, which would be "good news". But it could also be simply because there are more 18 year-olds in the population this year.

So the real yardstick we should use to judge whether uptake of sciences is growing or declining is the *proportion* of entries in those subjects, not just the number of entries. The proportion of entries in a subject is the true reflection of the popularity of that subject among candidates in that year. And those proportions are certainly *not* rosy:

In 2009, Biology comprised 6.37% of A-level entries, compared with 6.59% in 2008. That's a *decline* of 0.22% in the proportion of entries in that subject.

In 2009, Chemistry comprised 4.95% of entries, compared with 4.95% in 2008. So the popularity of Chemistry among students has neither grown nor declined.

In 2009, Physics comprised 3.42% of entries, compared with 3.36% in 2008. So that's a rise of, wait for it, 0.06% - woo-hoo! Arguably more like noise than any cause for celebration.

In 2009, Maths comprised 8.56% of entries, compared with 7.77% in 2008. That's a rise of 0.79%. Some good news, perhaps, for maths - but although it is a step in the right direction, still less than 10% of entries are in this key subject.

In 2009, Further Maths comprised 1.30% of entries, compared with 1.15% in 2008. A rise of 0.15%; again, perhaps good news - but still only a tiny fraction of entries are in maths at this level.

To summarise: the proportion of entries in biology has declined this year, while those in chemistry and physics have been fairly static. The proportion of entries in maths has increased, but is still woefully small for a nation hoping for strong performance in the "knowledge economy" of the future.

And to put this year's entry stats in context, from 2007 to 2008 the proportion of entries in chemistry increased slightly, while biology was static and physics declined slightly. So we're hardly on a clear road to increased popularity among candidates year-on-year for any of the sciences.

All the more reason, then, for us to keep getting out there and enthusing young people about science.